On Thursday, Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) and Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) both reported smaller-than-expected first-quarter profit declines as consumers continued to pull back their spending.
Luxury retailer Nordstrom said its profit fell 24% from the same quarter of last year to $119 million, or 54 cents per share. Revenue fell 4% from a year ago to $1.88 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had predicted Nordstrom would earn 49 cents per share on sales of $1.9 billion.
The company said same-store sales fell 6.5% for the quarter, below the expected 3% to 5% drop. The retailer said it expects same-store sales to fall 5% to 7% in the quarter, and 4% to 6% in the year.
For the current quarter, Nordstrom forecast a profit of 65 to 70 cents per share; analysts' forecast earnings of 69 cents per share. For the full year, Nordstrom cut its earnings outlook to $2.65 to $2.89 per share, from an earlier forecast for $2.75 to $2.90 per share. Analysts predict earnings of $2.76 per share.
By mid day Friday, shares of Nordstrom had gained $1.35, or 3.5%, from the open on Thursday. Shares have fallen 28.7% in the past year.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Department store sector, SanDisk and CNET Networks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded the department store sector to Neutral from Attractive after raising its 2008 oil forecast to $149 from $115, as it believes higher gas prices will impact consumer discretionary spend and sentiment. Goldman downgraded JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) to Neutral and also removed Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) from its Conviction Buy List.
JMP Securities downgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Underperform from Market Perform based on increased competition in NAND, a potential decline in royalty income, valuation, and lack of catalysts from flash-based solid state drives.
CNET Networks (NASDAQ: CNET) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America following the tender offer from CBS (NYSE: CBS).
Goldman Sachs cut its view of U.S. department stores to Neutral from Attractive. Specifically, the broker downgraded J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) to Neutral from Buy after its commodity team upped 2008 oil price forecasts to $149 a barrel. Still, Goldman upgraded TJX Cos. (NYSE: TJX) to Buy from Neutral and removed Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) from its conviction-buy list in favor of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT).
By now I'm getting confused with all the deals Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is signing with wireless operators to sell the iPhone in different countries around the world. I believe the past two weeks we heard of at least two deals, including one with a S.Korean company. Today, French wireless operator Orange said it has signed a deal to sell its iPhone in the Middle East, Africa and several European countries. Orange will be the exclusive iPhone provider in Belgium and Romania. It seems that by now Apple's got the world covered.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) is apparently considering launching its Chevrolet brand in South Korea. In its attempt to stay ahead of fast growing Toyota (NYSE: TM), GM will try to capture a larger share of S.Korea's growing market for imported cars.
U.S. stock futures were higher this morning, looking to extend their rally, even though investors will likely not like the upcoming housing data, which probably isn't going to signal a bottom for the housing recession.
U.S. stocks had a nice rally Thursday as oil prices fell, several deals were announced, mainly CBS buying CNet, and Icahn moving forward with his proxy fight for Yahoo's board. The Dow industrials rose 94 points, or 0.73%, the S&P 500 added 14 points, or 1.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 37 points, or 1.48%. Thursday marked the fourth day of gains for the Nasdaq.
This morning, investors will be waiting for the housing data to roll in. Housing starts and building permits figures for April will be reported at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Both are expected to show further declines. Also at 10:00 a.m. EDT, May University of Michigan's consumer confidence gauge for May is due. Economists expect it to decline marginally.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs helped lift oil prices this morning after it raised its forecast for oil to $141 a barrel. The forecast was raised 32% from $107 a barrel and is for the second half of 2008. Oil prices were back above $125 a barrel.
U.S. stock futures were marginally higher early Thursday morning as once again investors await data on the economy to give them direction. Several deals and earnings are also in the spot light this morning.
U.S. stocks received a boost Wednesday from lower-than expected inflation numbers, given extra credence by the fall in crude-oil prices. While most companies reporting earnings Wednesday didn't proved good news, a smaller-than-forecast loss for Freddie Mac helped lift sentiment. The Dow industrials rose 66 points, or 0.52%, the S&P 500 rose 6 points, or 0.40%, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up more than a point, or 0.06%.
This morning, more inflation data is due out. Consumer level inflation reported Wednesday managed to surprise the Street, but can the economic releases today do the same? At 8:30 a.m., weekly initial jobless claims will be released, as well as May NY Empire State Index. At 9:00 a.m., March Net Foreign Purchases will be reported to be followed some time later with April capacity utilization and industrial production. At 10:00 a.m., after the market opens, the Philadelphia Fed index is due and is expected to show another decline. Finally, a housing index is also due today.
I know that what you probably wanted to hear most is that the economy's slowdown is at an end so that some of your beaten-down stocks could enjoy a nice recovery. When the stock markets started declining towards the end of last year, SmartMoney tells us that analysts began to place bets on when we might see stocks rebound. Back then, many fund managers had expected a rally in the second half of 2008.
The Federal Reserve's decision to slash interest rates several times certainly gave a temporary boost to stocks -- not enough for a long-term rally, though. Daily concerns such as the deep housing slump and the rising inflation today give the impression that a second-half comeback is but a dream; it that would be quite hard to accomplish.
While analysts on Wall Street mostly believe a long-term rally is not too realistic now, they believe a moderate boost, stemming from the Fed's rate cuts and the $117 billion in tax rebates going into banks' accounts, is likely. On the other hand, looking at corporate profits, Citigroup analysts believe that predictions related to stocks' earnings figures are too high when taking the challenging market conditions into account.
The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year, from Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to be 22.7% to 22 cents per share, from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to be 9.3% to 75 cents per share, and from TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) to be 7.5% to 40 cents per share.
Analysts expect earnings declines from the previous year from JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) by 52.9% to 49 cents per share, from Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) by 34.4% to 42 cents per share, and from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) by 18.3% to 49 cents per share.
In the case of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), analysts expect earnings to remain flat, year over year, at 65 cents per share.
And then there's Macy's (NYSE: M), which is expected to swing to a loss of 2 cents per share, compared to a profit of 16 cents a year ago.
The sample size may be too small to define any significant trends, but the numbers do suggest that analysts expect profit declines to be deeper than profit growth, and that consumers may be more likely, given the current state of the economy, to buy clothes at Wal-Mart or TJ Maxx than at Nordstrom or Abercrombie.
The coming results will reveal if those expectations are correct.
Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) recently said that it would scale back its plans for opening new locations in the U.S. in 2008 and for the next few years, citing a "squeeze-play on consumers." Instead of the announced 90 new stores this year, Kohl's now expects to open 70 to 75 new stores this year. The retailer is still on track to open its 1,000th store later in 2008, however.
Although the "mall store outside the mall" has identified about 400 sites for potential locations in the near future, it said that kind of expansion may not happen until 2014. Last year, the retailer opened 112 stores nationwide, ending up with a total of 943 stores total in 57 states.
Kohl's is right when it said that its customers are "under a lot of pressure" due to higher fuel, grocery and health care costs. The good news, from what I have seen in the past, is that Kohl's has very low prices for much of its "Croft & Barrow" apparel items, its private-label brand. If it can fight the good fight with Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) in terms of prices and clothing selection, it may yet have decent sales on those items as expensive housewares and related items sink this year.
The New York Times reports that Americans in the economic middle are eating pasta instead of meat and staying at Hampton's Inn instead of Hilton as they try to keep their families together in the face of flat income and skyrocketing costs. As a result, some companies are suffering and others are benefiting. Let's look at two that are benefiting and 10 that are hurting:
Here are two companies that are doing better thanks to their lower prices:
Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) is a leading U.S. off-price retailer of name brand apparel, accessories, footwear and home fashions. The firm operates 854 Ross Dress for Less stores and 54 dd's Discounts locations, in 27 states and Guam. Target (NYSE: TGT) and Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) are major competitors.
The company pleased investors last week, when it announced March same-store sales figures that easily topped Wall Street estimates. Management also said it expected Q1 EPS of 56-58 cents, versus analyst consensus of 53 cents. The CEO attributed success to solid performances in the dress, shoe and home categories. JP Morgan subsequently upgraded the stock to "overweight" and CL King reiterated its "strong buy".
Why Starbucks' Logo Changed The coffee chain is temporarily using a retro brown look to evoke its beginnings and restore some goodwill for the brand. Starbucks' Retro Logo - BusinessWeek
Big Names Owe Big-Time on Taxes The IRS estimates that 21% of federal individual income taxes go unpaid each year - about $300 billion last year. As Tuesday's tax deadline approaches, Americans are settling accounts on $1.5 trillion in federal and state income taxes for 2007. But what about those who don't pay? Who are they? Do they get away with it? Hundreds of seemingly wealthy people - company presidents, former soap opera stars, top-selling real estate agents - live in multimillion-dollar homes yet have huge tax problems. Many tax delinquents live openly and prosperously for years, even decades, while owing millions of dollars in taxes. These include singer Dionne Warwick, comedian Sinbad, Bill Clinton's former political advisor, Dick Morris, former U.S. treasurer Catalina Vásquez Villalpando and infamous celebrity OJ Simpson to name a few. Big names owe big-time on taxes - USATODAY.com
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says yesterday didn't deliver a giant down close, just profit-taking. It may signal a new bullish pattern to watch.
You just want it to close down, get clocked, remove the water torture. But what's really happening is we are working off the overbought condition in a fine fashion.
It's a natural thing in this market, after a big move, to give it all back and then some. However, that has not happened this time. We have had a series of small declines, nothing monumental and we may have to recognize that we are in a new pattern where we have profit-taking but no more.
I was over at Stockpickr.com yesterday -- I try to check in a couple of times a day -- and was not surprised to see questions in the Answers section about what is wrong with the steel stocks. To me, the steels are exhibiting classic bullish behavior, a great run followed by a small pullback -- true bull market behavior.
Now, here's the test: the comp sales. We had some bad numbers, especially from outfits like Target (NYSE: TGT) (Cramer's Take) and Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take), and I don't think it will matter! Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) guided up, and I think it could power over $55.
I have been negative on this market, but I like the way it bounces off when it is down big. Have to recognize a new, more bullish pattern when you see one.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
PDUFA date for Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY)'s supplemental Biologics License Application for Orencia for the treatment of Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 5pm.
Tuesday, April 8
Chattem Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTT) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 9:00am.
FOMC to release minutes of the March 18th meeting at 2:00pm.
What's a tell-tale sign of a recession, and conversely, an indicator investors/readers should monitor to spot when the recovery has started? Retail sales -- particularly at department stores.
Most retailers will report March 2008 same-store sales this week, and Wall Street is bracing for the worst. In January 2008 and February 2008, same-store sales declined at nearly every major department store, including JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN).
Further, investors should watch Nordstrom's same-store sales carefully. The reason? Upscale retailer Nordstrom is a type of quick-reference, or an economic-barometer-in-a-snapshot, of the depth of a recession. If retail sales decline at broader-demographic retailers for several consecutive months, that points to a recession. But if sales decline at upscale retailer Nordstrom, that's a sign that even those with higher incomes and substantial assets are cutting back, which is a bad sign for the economy.
Nordtstrom's customers include professionals, executives and business owners -- including people who make hiring decisions. If they're cutting back, that may indicate they will not be hiring in the period ahead, which is never good news for the economy. Invariably, it means the recession's end is not near.
In Q4 2007, Nordstrom's sales fell 4.4% and earnings per share fell for the first time in more than five years to 92 cents per share. If Nordstrom's same-store sales decline again in March, that's a sign of continued belt-tightening by upper-middle and upper-income adults, and a sign that an economic recovery is not near.
On Thursday, 
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I know that what you probably wanted to hear most is that the economy's slowdown is at an end so that some of your beaten-down stocks could enjoy a nice recovery. When the stock markets started declining towards the end of last year, SmartMoney tells us that analysts began to place bets on when we might see stocks rebound. Back then, 
The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says yesterday didn't deliver a giant down close, just profit-taking. It may signal a new bullish pattern to watch..gif){kind=logo}
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Nordstrom and Kohl's post smaller-than-expected Q1 profit declines
